Journal of Biogeography

AimThe assembly of montane plant communities through time is underlain by historical and abiotic factors. However, the extent of evolutionary connectivity between ancient highland ecosystems and surrounding lowlands remains unclear. Here, we investigate the evolutionary connections between the campos rupestres, a hyperdiverse and fragmented montane vegetation complex in eastern South America, and lowland biomes surrounding it: savannas, rainforests, and seasonally dry tropical forests. LocationEastern South America. Time periodCenozoic. Major taxa studiedFlowering plants. MethodsUsing phylogenetic beta diversity analyses for 13 angiosperm clades, we assess the degree of lineage dissimilarity between campos rupestres subregions and adjacent biomes. We also apply generalized dissimilarity modeling to determine the role of climate, soil, and geographic distance in shaping spatial patterns of phylogenetic composition. ResultsOur results reveal high lineage permeability between campos rupestres and surrounding biomes, with lineage sharing largely reflecting biome adjacency. This pattern is mainly driven by shared climatic conditions, which are the strongest predictors of phylogenetic dissimilarity. Main conclusionsWe highlight the importance of lineage exchange between lowland and montane environments for the assembly of highland floras. By showing that lineage movements across biome boundaries have been common over time and spatial scales, our study challenges the idea that ancient Neotropical mountains are isolated sky-islands. Instead, we emphasize the dynamic nature of montane plant diversity and the pivotal role of climate in shaping evolutionary connections between highlands and lowlands.

Sky islands, mountain-top forests isolated by surrounding lowlands, offer unique opportunities to test how past and present landscapes shape species distributions. We examined the distribution of the Arizona gray squirrel (Sciurus arizonensis) across the Madrean Archipelago to test the constraint-based dynamic island biogeography (C-DIB) model, which posits that current occupancy in the sky islands reflects historical habitat size and connectivity. Using verified specimen records, we modeled climatically suitable habitats across four time periods: the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), Mid-Holocene (MH), Present, and Future. For each mountain, we quantified suitable habitat area and estimated least-cost dispersal distances to assess both persistence and colonization potential. Our results suggest that species presence is best explained by LGM habitat metrics, which marginally outperformed models based on current conditions. Mountains that were large or well-connected during the LGM continue to support S. arizonensis, whereas historically isolated ranges remain unoccupied despite suitable contemporary habitat. These findings indicate a legacy of Pleistocene connectivity and reveal patterns of distributional disequilibrium. Furthermore, climatically suitable habitat for S. arizonensis has shifted both elevationally and geographically through time, reflecting long-term responses to climatic change. Together, these results emphasize the importance of protecting historically connected refugia, restoring riparian corridors that facilitate dispersal, and developing mountain range-specific management strategies that account for elevational shifts and potential downslope habitat recovery under future climate scenarios.

Text AbstractIn this study, we characterized the genetic structure and reconstructed the demographic history of cactus wrens (Campylorhynchus brunneicapillus), an endemic species of desert regions of North America, that shows a clear phenotypic and genotypic variation. We evaluated the effects of historical climate change on the structure and population dynamics of desert species using genomic data through genotyping by sequencing (GBS) and applied a population structure analysis (FST and ADMIXTURE), revealing two genetically differentiated groups: one continental and another peninsular in Baja California. Subsequently, we implemented the MSMC2 coalescent model on data divided into autosomal regions and the Z sex chromosome to estimate changes in effective population size (Ne) through evolutionary time. Additionally, we developed ecological niche models (ENMs) projected to the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), Last Interglacial (LIG), Present times, and Future (2060 - 2080). Results indicate that both populations maintained moderated Nes before the LGM, experienced severe bottlenecks (Ne [~] 102-103), followed by a sustained expansion. However, recovery was limited to the Z chromosome of the peninsular population. These findings reveal how glaciations and interglacials shaped the evolutionary history of desert species and provide genomic evidence of the splitting of C. affinis from C. brunneicapillus. Article summaryThis research examines how climate changes shaped genetic diversity of cactus wrens across North American warm deserts. Using coalescent methods, researchers tracked effective population size changes over 100,000 years, using ecological niche modeling they predicted habitat suitability across climate periods. Results showed that continental and peninsular populations experienced bottlenecks during the Last Glacial Maximum, followed by demographic recovery on warm periods. However, the sex chromosome (Z) revealed male-biased demographic patterns in peninsular populations. Future projections indicated habitat suitability reductions for peninsular populations, highlighting conservation concerns. These findings demonstrate that past climate shaped genetic diversity of cactus wrens.

AimUnderstanding whether invasive species retain or shift their ecological niches has traditionally relied on scalar overlap metrics that quantify the magnitude of niche change, but not its structure. Here, we test whether biological invasions involve a reorganisation of the environmental axes along which native and invasive ranges are differentiated, and whether the dominant axes of this reorganisation are consistently associated with invasion pathway type (intercontinental vs. within-continent). LocationGlobal (North America, Europe, Africa, Asia, Australasia). Time periodContemporary (environmental variables representing long-term averages, 1980-2021). Major taxa studiedFreshwater crayfish (Decapoda: Astacidea): Procambarus clarkii, Faxonius limosus, Pacifastacus leniusculus, Faxonius virilis, Faxonius rusticus. MethodsWe analysed native and invasive occurrences for five globally important crayfish invaders using [~]400 hydrologically resolved environmental variables from the Global Crayfish Database of Geospatial Traits. Classification models were used to quantify environmental differentiation between native and invasive ranges, and feature contributions were aggregated by environmental domain (climate, topography, soil, land cover). Patterns were evaluated across intercontinental and within-continent invasion pathways and assessed for robustness using cross-validation, permutation tests, sample-size sensitivity, and comparisons with classical niche overlap metrics. ResultsNative and invasive occurrences were consistently distinguishable across all species (accuracy 96.5-99.9%). A pathway-dependent pattern emerged: intercontinental invaders were primarily differentiated along climatic dimensions (58-76% of model importance), whereas within-continent invaders showed a more balanced contribution of climatic and topographic variables ([~]42% each), including strong signals from river network position. This contrast was stable across cross-validation folds (SD < 1.6%), and supported by permutation tests (P = 0.001). Classical niche overlap metrics (Schoeners D = 0.30-0.62) did not capture this qualitative distinction. Main conclusionsBiological invasions involve not only changes in niche position but a reorganisation of the environmental axes that distinguish species distributions. Our results suggest that the dominant axes of this reorganisation differ systematically with invasion pathway, reflecting whether species encounter novel climatic regimes or primarily shift within existing climatic space along topographic and network-position gradients. By resolving which environmental dimensions underpin native-invasive differentiation, this approach provides a complementary perspective to scalar overlap metrics and a basis for more mechanistic interpretations of invasion processes.

Abstract/SummaryHere we untangle the systematics of the Asiatic white-eye complex (Zosterops spp.) to better understand the early stages of a recent island radiation. We adopt an integrative approach involving allelic data, genome-scale single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs), and museum-based morphometrics coupled with a comprehensive sampling to provide the most holistic understanding of the group to date. The island lineages of Asiatic white-eyes across Indonesia, the Philippines, East Asia, the adjacent oceanic islands of the Western Pacific underwent a deep split separating Zosterops everetti and Z. nigrorum in the Phillippines from a very rapid radiation including Z. japonicus, Z. meyeni, and Z. montanus in the Philippines, Japan, and Indonesia. Z. nigrorum catarmanensis on Camiguin South in the Philippines was found to be nested within Z. montanus and a species limit between Z. nigrorum populations on Panay and Luzon was strongly supported. Phylogenetic splits and population structure were detected within the clade containing Z. japonicus, Z. meyeni, and Z. montanus. A well-supported split separates a northern group including Northern Philippines Z. montanus subspecies, Z. meyeni, and Z. japonicus from the southerly Z. montanus taxa. This creates a paraphyletic Z. montanus. However, based on speciation rates within the broader Asiatic white-eye clade this break likely does not yet represent evolutionarily independent species lineages. Morphological evolution is taking place within the Asiatic white-eyes especially within the robust, large-billed subspecies of Z. japonicus on the oceanic islands of Japan and in the newly identified yellow-morph of Z. montanus on Camiguin South.

The Humboldt upwelling ecosystem has been intensively harvested by people since the early Holocene. Understanding past and present human choices under climatic variability in these productive environments may hold key insights for its future sustainability by unraveling different adaptive pathways. To this end, we studied shellfish exploitation and climate patterns in the Taltal region of the Atacama desert coast (25{whitebullet}S) from the early Holocene until today using a compilation of archaeological, and modern benthic fisheries data together with direct ecological surveys. In addition we obtained satellite sea surface temperature (SST) and published{delta} 18O SST for the study region. The archaeological record and the modern rocky shore assemblage were dominated by herbivorous gastropods -Fissurella spp., Enoplochiton spp., Tegula spp.-and the carnivorous whelk Concholepas concholepas. Functional composition from the early Holocene to the present was remarkably stable. Using SST as a latent variable, we examined changes in functional composition across the Holocene and in a 16-year series of artisanal fisheries landings using bayesian ordination. The analysis identified functional groups characteristic of kelp ecosystems in association with cooler SST conditions during the Holocene and the present. Changes in functional composition during warm and cold periods of the Holocene broadly mirrored effects of interannual SST variability in the modern fisheries. The archaeological record suggests two cross-Holocene transitions social-ecological transitions. The generalized shoreline harvesting strategy that prevailed during the cold early Holocene shifted to a specialized maritime economy towards the warmer mid-Holocene. The maritime technological and cultural adaptions remained, but were part of more diversified lifestyles in the cooler and more variable late Holocene. The latter emerged at the same time as the modern El Nino climate pattern. Our insights from the direct analysis of human choices and SST variability highlight the role of flexibility and agency under a changing environment. The broad range of human decisions in the past, inform current regulatory frameworks for benthic artisanal fisheries. Marine resources and the livelihoods that depend on them are integrated into coupled coastal socioecological systems; their future sustainability hinges on fostering the different dimension of their adaptive capacity.

Juncus bufonius L. s.l. is a species complex with several ploidy levels, for which species delimitation remains unclear due to a lack of reliable morphological characters and the paucity of molecular studies. To clarify taxonomic and geographic relationships in the complex, we combined genomic, cytometric and morphological data from a broad latitudinal range from England down to Spain. We collected morphometric and cytometric data from 31 populations, and genomic data were obtained through Hyb-Seq using the Angiosperm353 kit for a subset of individuals. These three datasets were combined to explore phylogenetic relationships, population structure, and the validity of four previously proposed morphospecies (J. bufonius s.str., a hexaploid; J. minutulus, a tetraploid; and J. ranarius and J. hybridus, both diploids). Sequencing supported the separation of diploids and polyploids as two distinct taxa, but morphometric characters used previously to describe morphospecies showed continuous variation with no diagnostic value, and were not congruent with genomic and cytometric data. Polyploids likely originated through allopolyploidisation from diploids and tetraploids. Phylogenetic lineages were extensively mixed geographically, both for diploid and polyploid taxa, which suggests repeated long-distance dispersal events for both diploids and polyploids, and no separation of taxa by geography. Splitting of diploids into J. ranarius and J. hybridus was not supported. We recommend J. ranarius be treated as a synonym of J. hybridus, and that tetraploids and hexaploids be grouped under J. bufonius. The observed geographical patterns are consistent with high rates of seed dispersal by migratory waterbirds.

Understanding habitat suitability and landscape connectivity is essential for conserving wide-ranging carnivores in climate-sensitive high-altitude mountain ecosystems. The first occurrence record of the Tibetan brown bear (Ursus arctos pruinosus) from the Changthang region of Ladakh, India, has raised questions about whether this individual represents an isolated dispersal event or reflects functional connectivity with source populations on the Tibetan Plateau. To evaluate potential habitat suitability and transboundary connectivity, we compiled species occurrence records and associated environmental predictors and developed an ensemble species distribution model using biomod2. We then assessed landscape connectivity using circuit theory implemented in Circuitscape to identify potential ecological corridors. Our models indicate that approximately 1,011,818 km{superscript 2} (21.34%) of the combined Ladakh (India) and the Tibetan Plateau landscape is currently suitable for the species, of which only [~]207,000 km{superscript 2} represents highly suitable habitat. Annual precipitation, precipitation of the wettest month, and precipitation of the warmest quarter were the most influential predictors of habitat suitability. Connectivity analysis identified potential corridors linking the eastern Changthang region of Ladakh with suitable habitat on the Tibetan Plateau, suggesting plausible transboundary ecological connectivity. These results indicate that the recent record from Changthang is more likely driven by landscape-scale functional connectivity than by an isolated dispersal event. Although the mapped corridors represent probable connectivity pathways rather than confirmed movement routes, this study provides the first spatially explicit assessment of habitat suitability and potential transboundary connectivity for the Tibetan brown bear across the Ladakh and Tibetan Plateau landscape.

The influence of environmental factors on the dynamics of living organisms can imply non-linear relationships. Some of them exhibit threshold effects. Hyperbolic functions effectively represent ecological processes that display threshold behaviours, such as those described by the law of the minimum, or law of the limiting factor. However, the mathematical formulation of the hyperbola is complex, which makes its use challenging and its parameters difficult to interpret. In this article, we propose an efficient mathematical formulation for the hyperbola, one in which all the parameters are independent and easily interpretable. We also provide an R script and a Python script to facilitate the implementation of this hyperbolic formulation in modelling studies. We then used this new hyperbolic function to model the influence of edaphic and climatic factors on the growth of 18 forest tree species widely distributed across Europe based on a dataset of 8,330 plots from the French National Forest Inventory. Our hyperbolic function allowed us to identify the threshold effects of summer climatic constraints on forest growth for several species. In particular, we found negative effects for soil water deficit and maximum summer temperature, although for several species these effects only appear beyond a certain level of constraint. Accounting for such threshold effects is crucial to improve our ability to understand and predict forest ecosystem responses in the context of climate change.

AimThe Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF) is the most prominent source of species occurrence data for modeling climate niches, but exhibits strong unevenness in its data coverage across different geographic regions. The impact of this spatial bias on the reliability of GBIF-based plant climate niches in Europe remains unexplored. This study aims to address this gap, and to investigate whether the targeted integration of additional atlas data can reduce the potential impact of the spatial bias. LocationEurope. Time period1950s - 2024 Major taxa studiedEuropean grassland plant species. MethodsWe analyzed the climate niches of a large number of grassland species, with diverse distribution patterns across Europe, based on a) GBIF and b) on an enriched version of GBIF with national atlas data from Eastern European countries (GBIF+), where data coverage is currently low in GBIF. We followed best practices in niche characterization, particularly by performing environmental subsampling. The accuracy in climate niche properties was determined by comparing niches based on GBIF and GBIF+ data with niches based on a careful implementation of expert range maps as reference dataset. We focused on niche optimum position and niche similarity. Additionally, we investigated how biogeographical indicators can predict variability in climate niche accuracy. ResultsMost species exhibited reliable climate niche characterization using GBIF data, especially for widely distributed species. Yet, reliability decreased with continentality; that is, when species were primarily distributed in Eastern Europe. Integrating additional data did not significantly reduce this bias in niche characterization. Main conclusionsDespite the spatial bias in its records, GBIF can be used to reliably characterize the climate niches of many species in Europe if uneven sampling effort is accounted for. The laborious integration of additional data to address spatial bias does not yield the desired increase in niche reliability.

Wind has a strong influence on the flight characteristics, movements, energetics, demography, life-history traits and biogeography of flying animals. With climate change affecting atmospheric circulation patterns at different time scales, understanding the links between wind and animal movements is crucial for predicting its impact on flying biodiversity. Most studies on the relationship between wind and seabird movements have, however, focused on local scales, exploring birds perceptive sensitivity to local wind. In this study, we examine low-level wind pattern oscillations in the Southern Indian Ocean at multiple time scales to explain the local- to large-scale movements of the Amsterdam albatross. Adult individuals exhibited smooth trajectories, strongly correlated with seasonal, intra-seasonal or interannual wind oscillations. Conversely, younger individuals displayed more erratic and exploratory movements, often being swept away by eastward moving low-pressure systems at a synoptic time scale. Our results suggest that Amsterdam albatrosses can learn and adapt to the annual and monthly low-level wind climatology and interannual variability of the Southern Indian Ocean. This also highlights the importance of investigating seabird movements in relation to broader-scale wind patterns to support their conservation in a changing climate due to human activities. A robust assessment of regional circulation response to climate change for upcoming decades could help project the impact of climate change on seabird movements and mitigate its effects.

The Atacama Desert hosts a unique ecosystem formed by the sand-dwelling Tillandsia landbeckii, which extends over hundreds of square kilometers. This vegetation relies primarily on fog as its main water source; however, aeolian sand also plays a crucial role in the long-term persistence of both the species and the overall plant community. The terrain is sloped and exposed to the prevailing wind direction. Tillandsia forms regular banding patterns oriented orthogonally to these landscape features. In this study, we aim to elucidate the abiotic-biotic interactions between sand properties and vegetation characteristics through a comparative approach. Three populations - Caldera, Oyarbide and Arica -, each spanning several square kilometers in the southern, central, and northern regions of the Chilean Atacama Desert, were selected to compare wind regimes, terrain structure, sand and substrate properties, and vegetation structure in order to identify common principles that maintain vegetation integrity. Data were collected from six climate stations, 1,246 substrate samples, population genomic data from 718 individuals, as well as satellite imagery and digital terrain models. Our findings demonstrate that regional wind systems transport sand from distant source areas, while near the ground, Tillandsia vegetation reduces wind velocity and traps sand, leading to the formation of moderately sorted sandy substrates that are similar across all three populations. Sites lacking or containing dead Tillandsia individuals often differ significantly in substrate characteristics. Genetic analyses indicate that Tillandsia populations exhibit strong spatial structure albeit recruiting high genetic diversity and an excess of heterozygosity, reflecting adaptation to the dynamic environmental conditions. We conclude that sand represents an essential component of this ecosystem, while Tillandsia, as the dominant biotic factor, actively shapes and maintains this distinctive desert environment. Graphical abstract O_FIG O_LINKSMALLFIG WIDTH=200 HEIGHT=133 SRC="FIGDIR/small/707457v2_ufig1.gif" ALT="Figure 1"> View larger version (66K): org.highwire.dtl.DTLVardef@1d5a9d3org.highwire.dtl.DTLVardef@8067deorg.highwire.dtl.DTLVardef@23470forg.highwire.dtl.DTLVardef@e2ae1_HPS_FORMAT_FIGEXP M_FIG C_FIG Generated based on own drawings and iterative improvements using ChatGPT while providing own peer-reviewed research contributions as input and baseline information (MAK). Short summaryWe exemplify unimodal regional wind systems facilitating sand transport toward Tillandsiales. Tillandsiales show a low-energy wind system allowing sand accumulation of predominant grain sizes available at each site. Thereby Tillandsia landbeckii modifies and maintains its own microenvironment. Genomic data reveal high clonality and excess of heterozygosity promoting fitness in a hyperarid environment, and abiotic factors drive the selection of diverse and adaptive Tillandsia phenotypes.

Mediterranean Basin, one of the most important hot spots for reptiles, is also expected to experience significant impacts with climate change, posing a severe risk for the herpetofauna of the region. This study uses the snake-eyed lizard Ophisops elegans as a model organism to investigate the potential impacts of past and future climate change on reptile distributions in the region. An ecological niche model (ENM) was developed with the Maxent algorithm, with location points from GBIF and bioclimatic variables from the CHELSA dataset, then projected onto past LGM ([~]21 kya) and future (2071-2100 SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5) scenarios. Results show that the present-day distribution of O. elegans is primarily driven by temperature seasonality and precipitation, indicating a preference for coastal Mediterranean climates with dry summers. The LGM projection suggests a fragmented and contracted range, confined to coastal refugia around the Mediterranean and Caspian Seas. Future projections for 2071-2100 show consistent and alarming contraction of suitable habitats under both SSP scenarios. In conclusion these findings indicate that O. elegans is vulnerable to significant habitat loss under projected climate change. This severe impact on a wide-spread species implies that the herpetofauna of the Mediterranean Basin may face a significant threat in future.

AimAnalysis of species distributions often rests on the assumption of environmental equilibrium. That is, the distribution of a species (as documented by observation records) captures the full range of environmental conditions under which that species can maintain viable populations. Despite the centrality of this assumption to a variety of biogeographic questions, it is rarely empirically tested. This is particularly critical for recently introduced invasive species that are characterized by rapid expansion in their introduced range, often coupled with a niche shift relative to their native distribution. Defining equilibrium under these dynamic conditions is difficult. We developed the concept of environmental stasis as a more tractable proxy for equilibrium. In the context of species invasions, we define stasis as a prolonged period without an increase in the environmental conditions occupied by a species. LocationNorth America Time Period1614 to 2020. Major Taxa StudiedInvasive plants MethodsWe applied the metric of climatic stasis to a suite of 258 invasive plant species in North America. We categorized their invasion trajectories into three classes (linear, two- and three-phase) based on theoretical expectations and then assessed how many had demonstrated environmental (climatic) stasis over a period of at least thirty years. ResultsMore than 80% of the species were best fit by two- or three-phase models, indicating a declining rate of expansion. Climatic stasis was only documented for 44% of the species. In contrast, 85% of the species were in climatic stasis in their native ranges. The time to reach stasis ranged from 30 to 145 years (mean 90), and species at stasis in their invaded range occupied 97% of the climatic space they occupied in their native range. Main ConclusionsThis assessment provides valuable insight into the unrealized threat posed by the majority of invasive plants that have not yet reached stasis, as well as identifying which species can be most appropriately evaluated by methods that depend on the equilibrium assumption. Our work also demonstrates the useful perspective provided by the environmental stasis concept, which enables empirical quantification of one of the key aspects of equilibrium.

Incilius marmoreus inhabits an extensive range along the Pacific Coast of Mexico and a smaller allopatric region in the State of Veracruz, exhibiting an unusual distribution among herpetofauna. Gunther (1901) classified the Pacific coastal toads Bufo argillaceus and B. lateralis as conspecific with Incilius [Bufo] marmoreus, which has its type locality in Veracruz. Here, we adopt a multidisciplinary approach to reevaluate the phylogeography and taxonomy of I. marmoreus by gathering and analyzing morphological data and conducting phylogenetic and population genetic analyses from genome-wide SNP data. Our results uphold the current taxonomy by concurring with Gunther (1901). Our phylogenetic and population genetic analyses suggest that I. marmoreus from Veracruz are closely related to those from Oaxaca whilst coalescent analyses recovered a north-south split along the Pacific Coast estimated to have occurred [~]0.86 Mya followed by a shallow east-west split in the southern lineage that separates the Pacific coastal populations and the allopatric population in Veracruz [~]0.33 Mya. This species displays marked morphological and genetic diversity throughout its range, but this variation appears to be consistent with gene flow across contiguous populations rather than the existence of independent evolutionary lineages. The processes leading to the geographic isolation of the population on the coast of Veracruz remain uncertain, but we hypothesize that climatic and vegetation changes in the Late Pleistocene may have played a role.

The European Pleistocene populations of the narrow-headed vole (Stenocranius gregalis), an index species of the Palearctic glacial communities, were recently found to differ from the extant Asian species by a deep genetic divergence and are to be considered a separate species, Stenocranius anglicus, which had to persist through the interglacial stages in local European refugia. Here, we analyze over 2000 first lower molars from 14 stratified localities in the Czech Republic and Slovakia, spanning the Middle Pleistocene to Holocene, employing geometric morphometrics, biometric measurements, and morphotype classifications to assess molar shape variation. Our results demonstrate persistent morphological variability, with particularly high morphotype diversity during MIS 5-3, followed by simplification and reduced variance in post-LGM populations. Morphological divergence was greater among geographic localities than stratigraphic stages, suggesting strong regional and ecological influences. Stratified sequences reveal diverse evolutionary trajectories from long-term morphological stability in refugia to gradual simplification preceding extinction in the early Holocene. These patterns align with broader Eurasian trends but also highlight regionally specific responses to climatic and ecological change accompanying the species extinction dynamics during the early to middle Holocene. The paper underscores the importance of integrating detailed morphometrics with stratigraphic and ecological evidence to shed light on these topics.

Paleobiologists commonly use genera as a proxy for species in biodiversity studies. However, a lingering concern is that patterns among genera might not always faithfully reflect patterns among species. To date, the concern has focused chiefly on measured patterns of richness over time and on implied origination and extinction rates. However, similar issues might arise for studies of morphological disparity. Moreover, there potentially are additional implications of disparity patterns among species versus those among genera concerning the range of observable anatomical characters and whether disparity within genera is comparable to disparity among genera. If clades have some relatively slowly changing characters that workers have used to denote different genera, then we would expect to see congeneric species to cluster in morphospace; however, if such characters are rare, then within-genus disparity might approach among-genus disparity. Here, we use genus-level and species-level disparity patterns among acanthoceratid ammonoids from the Late Cretaceous. In particular, we examine whether these different level imply different evolutionary dynamics over a major ecological event (Ocean Anoxic Event 2) and how disparity within genera (i.e., among congeneric species) compares to disparity among genera. We find genus-level disparity somewhat inflates early acanthoceratid disparity but implies similar patterns over the OAE2. We also find that within-genus disparity is slightly lower than among-genus, but not hugely so. The combined results suggest that acanthoceratoid shell anatomy does not really show "genus" level characters, even if congeneric species do tend to be more similar to each other than to species in other genera. Thus, this might provide more of a warning for other types of studies using anatomical data (e.g., phylogenetic studies) than for disparity studies. Non-technical SummaryMany paleobiologists use genera to examine scientific questions. This leads to questions over whether this broader approach misses important species-level patterns. This study uses acanthoceratid ammonoids from the Late Cretaceous to examine disparity patterns at both the genus-level and the species-level. We specifically examine the disparity at both levels of this group over a time of high stress for this group, Ocean Anoxic Event 2 (OAE2). Our results show that genus-level disparity slightly exaggerates early acanthoceratid disparity but lowers to a similar pattern to the species-level disparity during OAE2. Within-genus disparity is shown to be slightly lower than among-genus, but not enough to be startling. Together, these results indicate that while some species within the same genus tend to be more alike to each other than those in other genera, there isnt a set of true "genus" level characters. This outcome leads to a warning against using anatomical data in phylogenetic studies, but less so for disparity studies.

Integral projection models (IPMs) are a powerful tool for predicting structured forest dynamics under global change. Inverse calibration approaches allow IPMs to be fit using widely available forest inventory data increasing potential applications. Yet inventory data may not provide sufficient information for IPMs to accurately identify underlying demographic rates leading to poor predictions. We construct a Bayesian dynamical IPM framework to integrate forest inventory (population density) with tree ring (individual growth) data to better predict size-structured forest dynamics. The framework pairs an IPM process model with data models that control for individual growth variability and a mismatch in the scale of forest inventory and tree ring data. The model is applied to a combination of experimental forest and simulated data to assess its ability to predict size-structured population density and estimate underlying demographic rates. We focus on the ability of the model to make inference about high-frequency variables associated with weather extremes and disturbance given their importance for predicting forest dynamics under global change. Predictions of size-structured population density were similar regardless of whether the dynamical IPM was provided both forest inventory and tree ring data (integrated model) or forest inventory data alone (population model). The population model, however, did not identify annual growth effects driven by high-frequency weather variables leading to poor estimates of population growth rate. Simulation trials under which the integrated model was provided varying numbers of tree ring records indicated that 10 records were sufficient for the model to estimate annual growth effects with near equivalent inference when 30 or more records were applied. Results highlight the potential for inversely calibrated IPMs to correctly predict structured population dynamics while incorrectly estimating underlying demographic rates. Integrating individual demographic data resolves this issue allowing for inference on growth responses to high-frequency weather and disturbance variables, thereby improving the ability of IPMs to predict structured forest dynamics under global change. While individual demographic rate data is often limited, simulation results indicate that only a small number of individual records are needed for valid inference.

Current climate change leads to longer frequencies and reduced predictability of climatic parameters. Recent studies have highlighted the importance of considering multiple environmental factors, but experimental evidence on how species respond to their combined effect remains scarce. Here, we experimentally manipulated precipitation frequency and predictability and tested how they affect body size, growth, and survival using the common lizard (Zootoca vivipara) as a model species. Longer precipitation frequency negatively affected adult growth and male survival. Predictability influenced body size-dependent survival of yearlings and adults in certain frequency treatments. In yearlings, treatment-induced growth differences compensated for treatment-induced differences in size-dependent survival, resulting in no size differences during reproduction. In adults, treatment-induced differences in size-dependent survival were not compensated for, resulting in body size differences during reproduction among treatments. Consequently, precipitation frequency and predictability had a joint effect on life-history traits. Our results demonstrate that, even without water shortage, small differences in the frequency and predictability of precipitation affect population demography and life-history traits. This indicates that integrating the interactive action of different climatic parameters will be key to understanding and better anticipating future impacts of climate change on species.

Species delimitation is a fundamental challenge in systematic biology, particularly for geographically variable taxa with hierarchical population structure and gene flow. Migration-aware coalescent models provide a powerful framework for investigating lineage divergence and accurately defining species boundaries. In this study, we combine statistical evaluations of gene flow with phylogenetic and population structure analyses to delimit species of fence lizards within the Sceloporus undulatus complex, a group characterized by extensive population subdivision, mitochondrial DNA introgression, and nuclear gene flow. We find that the undulatus complex exhibits uneven variation in genetic, morphological, and bioclimatic traits, resulting in variable distinctiveness among groups. In some cases, species boundaries are recognized by clear genetic discontinuities without gene flow. In others, shallow divergence, paraphyly, and gene flow produce leaky boundaries and fuzzy species limits. Mitochondrial introgression is extensive and concentrated at species boundaries, whereas nuclear gene flow occurs between only a few species and at much lower levels than within species. Neither within-species populations or species are substantially diverged across morphology or bioclimatic space, highlighting the limited utility of these traits for diagnosing species in this group. By integrating estimates of gene flow with phylogenetic and population structure analyses, this study provides a robust and biologically meaningful revised taxonomic framework for the undulatus complex that identifies independently evolving lineages as species.