Journal of Biogeography

Aimto characterize the evolution of climatic niches during the diversification of the Phyllotis darwini species group, in order to assess the extent to which divergences involved in radiation were associated with patterns of conservatism or divergence of climatic niches, and whether the differentiation found among climatic niches correlated with species phylogenetic relationships. Locationsouth-central Andes, surrounding lowlands, and Patagonia, South America. Methodsspecies climatic niches were characterized by sampling contemporaneous precipitation and temperature conditions across occurrence locations and entire distributional ranges. Climatic niches were analyzed and modeled using multivariate statistics (PCA, PERMANOVA), a maximum entropy-based algorithm, and novel methods developed to explore levels of differentiation (niche overlap test) and divergence (niche divergence test) between realized and fundamental niches. Comparative phylogenetic methods were applied using a time-calibrated phylogeny and integrating climate niche data to estimate ancestral environmental niches within geographic and environmental spaces. Resultscomparisons revealed low levels of climatic niche overlap, both among species realized niches and among their fundamental niches, suggesting high levels of niche differentiation during the diversification of Phyllotis species. Quantifications of niche overlap further showed that observed differences among species lay primarily in the multidimensional nature of climatic niches, as unidimensional quantifications exhibited higher levels of overlap. Evolved differences among species climatic niches were better fitted to a Brownian motion model of evolution, but lacked phylogenetic signal and showed no significant association with species phylogenetic distances. Main conclusionslow levels of differentiation between ancestral climatic niches suggest that the early radiation of species in the Phyllotis darwini species group was promoted by geographic isolation, whereas the more recent diversification of extant species was accompanied by climatic niche differentiation, possibly involving local adaptation to regional ecoclimatic changes associated with Quaternary glacial cycles. The spatial separation of sister species, the complete divergence of their climatic niches, and the lack of phylogenetic signal in niche differences suggest a scenario of diversification in which divergences were prompted by the spatial isolation, but also by the divergent selection exerted by regional climatic differences.

Background and aimsThis study combines morphological and environmental data to better understand a Brunfelsia (Solanaceae) species complex, aiming to clarify patterns of variation and identify ecological factors that shape morphotype boundaries. Such an approach provides a broader perspective on how organisms respond to environmental gradients and contributes to a more comprehensive understanding of biodiversity. MethodsWe analyzed 273 herbarium specimens for 13 morphological traits using univariate and ordination analyses, namely PCA and CVA. Climatic and edaphic variables were extracted for 147 specimens with georeferenced records. To assess habitat suitability and the ecological niche of each predefined morphotype, niche models under present conditions and niche overlap tests were conducted. A redundancy analysis (RDA) was applied to evaluate how environmental predictors explain variation in vegetative and floral traits. Finally, DAPC was used to estimate membership probabilities based on morphological and environmental data. Key ResultsTwo well-differentiated groups were recovered: the capitata-hydrangeiformis morphotype, allegedly composing a cline, and the ecologically and morphologically distinct "bahia" morphotype. Variation in floral traits was better explained by environmental predictors than variation in vegetative traits; moreover, floral traits were able to delineate morphotypes more robustly when plotted in isolation. However, when analyzing the results of ecological niche overlap, a significant ecological separation of the "bahia" morphotype from the others was observed. Therefore, key morphological characters for the taxonomy of Brunfelsia covary in part with environmental variables. ConclusionsThese findings support the recognition of "bahia" morphotype as a distinct species to be formally described. This integrative approach contributes to understanding diversification processes in biodiversity hotspots and highlights hidden taxonomic diversity within Brunfelsia, where many rare and narrow-endemic taxa lie.

Gliding has evolved repeatedly across vertebrates and is often regarded as a classic example of convergent evolution associated with arboreal habitats. However, it remains unclear whether convergent locomotion corresponds to shared ecological responses across taxa. In this study, we investigated the distribution patterns and environmental drivers of gliding vertebrates in Southeast Asia using occurrence records and environmental variables representing climate and forest structure. We analyzed five major groups, including flying lemurs, flying squirrels, gliding lizards, gliding snakes, and gliding frogs, using presence-background logistic regression models. Across taxa, temperature seasonality showed consistently negative effects, while canopy height showed positive effects, indicating a shared association with climatically stable environments and well-developed vertical forest structure. In contrast, other environmental variables exhibited substantial taxon-specific variation. For example, elevation showed a strong negative effect only in gliding snakes, suggesting a tendency toward lowland habitats, whereas precipitation variables had limited explanatory power for gliding frogs. These results demonstrate that, despite the convergent evolution of gliding locomotion, ecological responses to environmental factors are not uniform across vertebrate taxa. Instead, species distributions are shaped by a combination of shared functional constraints and lineage-specific ecological traits. Our findings highlight the importance of vertical forest structure and suggest that habitat alteration affecting canopy structure may disproportionately impact certain taxa.

Text AbstractIn this study, we characterized the genetic structure and reconstructed the demographic history of cactus wrens (Campylorhynchus brunneicapillus), an endemic species of desert regions of North America, that shows a clear phenotypic and genotypic variation. We evaluated the effects of historical climate change on the structure and population dynamics of desert species using genomic data through genotyping by sequencing (GBS) and applied a population structure analysis (FST and ADMIXTURE), revealing two genetically differentiated groups: one continental and another peninsular in Baja California. Subsequently, we implemented the MSMC2 coalescent model on data divided into autosomal regions and the Z sex chromosome to estimate changes in effective population size (Ne) through evolutionary time. Additionally, we developed ecological niche models (ENMs) projected to the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), Last Interglacial (LIG), Present times, and Future (2060 - 2080). Results indicate that both populations maintained moderated Nes before the LGM, experienced severe bottlenecks (Ne [~] 102-103), followed by a sustained expansion. However, recovery was limited to the Z chromosome of the peninsular population. These findings reveal how glaciations and interglacials shaped the evolutionary history of desert species and provide genomic evidence of the splitting of C. affinis from C. brunneicapillus. Article summaryThis research examines how climate changes shaped genetic diversity of cactus wrens across North American warm deserts. Using coalescent methods, researchers tracked effective population size changes over 100,000 years, using ecological niche modeling they predicted habitat suitability across climate periods. Results showed that continental and peninsular populations experienced bottlenecks during the Last Glacial Maximum, followed by demographic recovery on warm periods. However, the sex chromosome (Z) revealed male-biased demographic patterns in peninsular populations. Future projections indicated habitat suitability reductions for peninsular populations, highlighting conservation concerns. These findings demonstrate that past climate shaped genetic diversity of cactus wrens.

AimUnderstanding whether invasive species retain or shift their ecological niches has traditionally relied on scalar overlap metrics that quantify the magnitude of niche change, but not its structure. Here, we test whether biological invasions involve a reorganisation of the environmental axes along which native and invasive ranges are differentiated, and whether the dominant axes of this reorganisation are consistently associated with invasion pathway type (intercontinental vs. within-continent). LocationGlobal (North America, Europe, Africa, Asia, Australasia). Time periodContemporary (environmental variables representing long-term averages, 1980-2021). Major taxa studiedFreshwater crayfish (Decapoda: Astacidea): Procambarus clarkii, Faxonius limosus, Pacifastacus leniusculus, Faxonius virilis, Faxonius rusticus. MethodsWe analysed native and invasive occurrences for five globally important crayfish invaders using [~]400 hydrologically resolved environmental variables from the Global Crayfish Database of Geospatial Traits. Classification models were used to quantify environmental differentiation between native and invasive ranges, and feature contributions were aggregated by environmental domain (climate, topography, soil, land cover). Patterns were evaluated across intercontinental and within-continent invasion pathways and assessed for robustness using cross-validation, permutation tests, sample-size sensitivity, and comparisons with classical niche overlap metrics. ResultsNative and invasive occurrences were consistently distinguishable across all species (accuracy 96.5-99.9%). A pathway-dependent pattern emerged: intercontinental invaders were primarily differentiated along climatic dimensions (58-76% of model importance), whereas within-continent invaders showed a more balanced contribution of climatic and topographic variables ([~]42% each), including strong signals from river network position. This contrast was stable across cross-validation folds (SD < 1.6%), and supported by permutation tests (P = 0.001). Classical niche overlap metrics (Schoeners D = 0.30-0.62) did not capture this qualitative distinction. Main conclusionsBiological invasions involve not only changes in niche position but a reorganisation of the environmental axes that distinguish species distributions. Our results suggest that the dominant axes of this reorganisation differ systematically with invasion pathway, reflecting whether species encounter novel climatic regimes or primarily shift within existing climatic space along topographic and network-position gradients. By resolving which environmental dimensions underpin native-invasive differentiation, this approach provides a complementary perspective to scalar overlap metrics and a basis for more mechanistic interpretations of invasion processes.

Understanding how global biodiversity patterns arise is a central theme of biogeography, with contemporary theory recognising the roles of both dispersal and vicariance. Genera that are broadly distributed can provide important systems for disentangling the relative influence of these processes across evolutionary timescales. However, many lesser-studied groups, particularly those in the tropics, lack a densely sampled phylogeny which hinders robust inference of their evolutionary and biogeographic history. This study investigates the global diversification and systematics of the putative pantropical moth genus Parasa Moore (Lepidoptera: Limacodidae), with the aim of assessing the relative importance of dispersal and vicariance in shaping its distribution. Medium-coverage whole genome sequencing of specimens predominantly from museum collections were used to generate a globally sampled time-calibrated phylogeny of Parasa and associated genera (the Parasa-complex). Ancestral range estimation analyses were employed to infer geographical origins and possible dispersal times between bioregions. The Parasa-complex originated in Africa in the late Oligocene ([~]24 Ma) and, through a series of long-distance dispersal events during the early-mid Miocene, expanded into Asia ([~]23 Ma) and the Americas ([~]21 Ma). Across all regions, dispersal was the dominant process shaping present-day distributions, with a limited role of vicariance in some subregions. Phylogenetic analyses further demonstrated that Parasa is not monophyletic, with multiple independent lineages contributing to its apparent pantropical distribution. These findings highlight a central role of long-distance dispersal in generating certain global distributions. The results support a dynamic model of range evolution involving rapid Miocene dispersal and subsequent regional diversification. In addition, the non-monophyly of Parasa requires substantial taxonomic revision, underscoring the importance of robust phylogenetic frameworks for interpreting global biodiversity patterns.

Species distribution models (SDMs) are widely used to support risk assessment for invasive non-native plant species (INNPS), but their performance is constrained by the coverage of occurrence data. Combining occurrences from citizen science (CS) platforms with data from structured state agency (StAg) monitoring provides unique advantages, yet they are rarely integrated. Here, we systematically compare how CS, StAg, and combined (COM) occurrence data influence the inferred environmental niches, predictive performance, and spatial applicability of SDMs for three widespread INNPS (A. altissima, H. mantegazzianum, I. glandulifera) in central Germany. We quantified niche overlap between datasets using PCA and Schoeners D and applied a hierarchical SDM utilizing boosted regression trees, while the Area of Applicability (AOA) was assessed to identify monitoring gaps. CS data were strongly biased toward lower-elevation, urbanized environments, whereas StAg data captured higher-elevation, remote habitats, particularly along watercourses. Niche overlap reflected both invasion stage and habitat preferences: A. altissima, a species that is spreading, showed the lowest overlap. H. mantegazzianum, associated with linear habitats like watercourses and infrastructure, exhibited intermediate overlap, while I. glandulifera, a widespread species, displayed the highest overlap. Overall, combined models achieved the highest predictive performance (AUC: 0.85, TSS: 0.58), reduced uncertainty along environmental gradients and produced more ecologically plausible suitability patterns. AOA analysis revealed high applicability ([&ge;]59%) across data sources and species, with COM models consistently reducing extrapolation uncertainty. Our findings highlight that integrating CS and StAg data reduces spatial biases and enhances SDM robustness, which is vital to improve INNPS risk assessments and management. HighlightsO_LICitizen science and state agency data capture distinct environmental spaces. C_LIO_LIOverlap between data sources is related to invasion stage and habitat preference. C_LIO_LICombined data improves invasive species niche representation and model accuracy. C_LIO_LIAOA analysis reveals monitoring gaps, especially in remote and high-elevation areas. C_LI

Wind has a strong influence on the flight characteristics, movements, energetics, demography, life-history traits and biogeography of flying animals. With climate change affecting atmospheric circulation patterns at different time scales, understanding the links between wind and animal movements is crucial for predicting its impact on flying biodiversity. Most studies on the relationship between wind and seabird movements have, however, focused on local scales, exploring birds perceptive sensitivity to local wind. In this study, we examine low-level wind pattern oscillations in the Southern Indian Ocean at multiple time scales to explain the local- to large-scale movements of the Amsterdam albatross. Adult individuals exhibited smooth trajectories, strongly correlated with seasonal, intra-seasonal or interannual wind oscillations. Conversely, younger individuals displayed more erratic and exploratory movements, often being swept away by eastward moving low-pressure systems at a synoptic time scale. Our results suggest that Amsterdam albatrosses can learn and adapt to the annual and monthly low-level wind climatology and interannual variability of the Southern Indian Ocean. This also highlights the importance of investigating seabird movements in relation to broader-scale wind patterns to support their conservation in a changing climate due to human activities. A robust assessment of regional circulation response to climate change for upcoming decades could help project the impact of climate change on seabird movements and mitigate its effects.

Biodiversity patterns in tropical freshwater ecosystems remain unevenly understood, particularly in high-integrity regions such as Indigenous territories. In this study, we assessed taxonomic and functional beta diversity of Ephemeroptera, Plecoptera, and Trichoptera (EPT) in Amazonian streams located within the Panara Indigenous Territory, Brazil. We evaluated the relative contributions of local environmental variables, spatial processes, and landscape context to beta-diversity patterns. We disentangled the roles of replacement and richness differences across taxonomic and functional dimensions. EPT larvae were sampled in 31 streams during the dry season. Beta diversity was quantified using Sorensen-based dissimilarity indices, and functional dissimilarity was calculated from seven ecological traits using Gower distances. Taxonomic beta diversity was dominated by genus replacement and was jointly structured by local habitat variables and spatial components, indicating the combined influence of environmental filtering and dispersal limitation. In contrast, functional beta diversity was higher than taxonomic beta diversity and was predominantly structured by richness differences, with significant effects of local environmental variables but no detectable influence of spatial processes. This pattern indicates a decoupling between taxonomic and functional dimensions, suggesting high levels of functional redundancy among EPT genera across streams. Our findings demonstrate that Amazonian streams within Indigenous territories provide key systems for understanding community assembly processes under low levels of direct anthropogenic disturbance. By revealing contrasting mechanisms underlying taxonomic and functional beta diversity, this study underscores the importance of integrating multiple facets of biodiversity and reinforces the role of Indigenous territories as strategic landscapes for safeguarding Amazonian freshwater biodiversity.

Alpine ecosystems are among the most climate sensitive on Earth, yet logistical challenges and detection biases often impede robust assessment of alpine dependent species. We investigated habitat associations and density patterns of the Sierra Nevada subspecies of the Gray-crowned Rosy-Finch (Leucosticte tephrocotis dawsoni), an alpine obligate and regional endemic, over five breeding seasons from 2018 to 2022 using hierarchical distance sampling and mark-recapture distance sampling to explicitly account for imperfect detection and spatial heterogeneity. Density estimates tracked annual snowpack variation, ranging from 4.77 individuals/km{superscript 2} in a low snow year to 12.08 individuals/km{superscript 2} in a high snow year. Abundance was highest near persistent snow patches that provide foraging habitat and near cliffs that provide nesting substrate, and declined sharply above approximately 10% woody cover, with densities approaching zero beyond approximately 25%, indicating a steep ecological threshold. In contrast, the proportion of surveyed blocks with detections remained relatively stable across years. Together, these patterns indicate a three timescale co-limitation framework in which breeding habitat is shaped by static features (cliffs), dynamic annual drivers (snowpack), and longer-term directional change (woody encroachment). By linking population density to climate sensitive habitat features, this study provides a high-resolution abundance-based baseline for long term monitoring and offers a framework for evaluating climate vulnerability in alpine and other resource-limited systems. Open Research StatementData necessary to replicate the analyses and results presented in this manuscript will be archived in the Dryad Digital Repository upon acceptance, with no embargo on the material. The R code associated with this manuscript is not novel. All analyses use publicly available packages and functions without modification, including mrds (v2.3.0), unmarked (v1.2.5), tidyverse (v2.0.0), MuMIn (v1.47.5), and standard ggplot2 visualization tools. All code is properly cited within the manuscript and publicly available through CRAN. Complete analysis scripts will be archived in Dryad alongside the data upon acceptance to facilitate full reproducibility of results.

The concern about how climate change affects marine ecosystems is growing, despite the international commitment to reduce the rate of CO2 emissions. Predicting amphipod species responses to ocean warming is critical due to their high abundance and key ecological role in marine ecosystems. We applied Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) modelling on 17 selected benthic amphipod species across different ocean depths and feeding groups to evaluate their response to different future climate change scenarios. We used SSP 2.6 (low CO2 emission scenario) and SSP 8.5 scenarios (high CO2 emission scenario) on a global scale projected to the years 2050 and 2100. We further employed linear mixed-effects models (LMMs) to reveal differences in feeding groups responses across different scenarios and time scales. The projected distributions exhibited the reshaping of amphipod species composition areas, including potential local extinctions and the possibility of invasions into new locations. Multiple environmental variables contributed to the model outputs predicting future distributions across different feeding groups. Chlorophyll concentration and turbidity contributed majorly in predicting the future distribution of deposit feeders, while temperature and O2 were more influential for suspension feeders and herbivorous amphipods. Our findings indicated that trophic ecology mediates climate sensitivity, as a significant interaction between feeding types and two scenarios was observed. These findings highlight that climate change may dramatically alter the functional composition of benthic communities and their ecological roles, beyond simple changes in species distributions, emphasizing the need to consider ecological roles and trophic identity when assessing climate impacts on marine ecosystems.

Mediterranean Basin, one of the most important hot spots for reptiles, is also expected to experience significant impacts with climate change, posing a severe risk for the herpetofauna of the region. This study uses the snake-eyed lizard Ophisops elegans as a model organism to investigate the potential impacts of past and future climate change on reptile distributions in the region. An ecological niche model (ENM) was developed with the Maxent algorithm, with location points from GBIF and bioclimatic variables from the CHELSA dataset, then projected onto past LGM ([~]21 kya) and future (2071-2100 SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5) scenarios. Results show that the present-day distribution of O. elegans is primarily driven by temperature seasonality and precipitation, indicating a preference for coastal Mediterranean climates with dry summers. The LGM projection suggests a fragmented and contracted range, confined to coastal refugia around the Mediterranean and Caspian Seas. Future projections for 2071-2100 show consistent and alarming contraction of suitable habitats under both SSP scenarios. In conclusion these findings indicate that O. elegans is vulnerable to significant habitat loss under projected climate change. This severe impact on a wide-spread species implies that the herpetofauna of the Mediterranean Basin may face a significant threat in future.

Amazon streams are increasingly threatened by land-use change, yet Indigenous Territories represent some of the most effective areas for maintaining habitat integrity and ecological processes in these systems. Understanding how local environmental conditions, landscape context, and spatial structure interact to shape biodiversity within these territories is essential for advancing conservation strategies. Here, we evaluated the relative influence of local habitat, landscape, and spatial predictors on Odonata diversity and identified species-specific ecological thresholds within an Indigenous Territory in the southern Brazilian Amazon. Adult Odonata were sampled in 31 first- to third-order forested streams in the Panara Indigenous Territory, Xingu River basin. Local habitat variables were the main drivers of Odonata community structure, indicating that local habitat integrity and physical stream characteristics strongly influence assemblage composition. In contrast, Zygoptera suborder were primarily structured by spatial predictors, suggesting stronger dispersal limitations and fine-scale spatial processes. Anisoptera suborder showed no significant community-level associations with the predictors, reflecting their broader ecological tolerance and higher dispersal capacity. Our results demonstrate that even within highly conserved Indigenous Territories, subtle environmental gradients and spatial structure shape Odonata assemblages and define ecological thresholds. By integrating community-level and species-specific approaches, this study provides robust evidence of the role of Indigenous lands in sustaining freshwater biodiversity and highlights the value of Odonata as indicators for monitoring ecological integrity in Amazonian streams.

AimAnalysis of species distributions often rests on the assumption of environmental equilibrium. That is, the distribution of a species (as documented by observation records) captures the full range of environmental conditions under which that species can maintain viable populations. Despite the centrality of this assumption to a variety of biogeographic questions, it is rarely empirically tested. This is particularly critical for recently introduced invasive species that are characterized by rapid expansion in their introduced range, often coupled with a niche shift relative to their native distribution. Defining equilibrium under these dynamic conditions is difficult. We developed the concept of environmental stasis as a more tractable proxy for equilibrium. In the context of species invasions, we define stasis as a prolonged period without an increase in the environmental conditions occupied by a species. LocationNorth America Time Period1614 to 2020. Major Taxa StudiedInvasive plants MethodsWe applied the metric of climatic stasis to a suite of 258 invasive plant species in North America. We categorized their invasion trajectories into three classes (linear, two- and three-phase) based on theoretical expectations and then assessed how many had demonstrated environmental (climatic) stasis over a period of at least thirty years. ResultsMore than 80% of the species were best fit by two- or three-phase models, indicating a declining rate of expansion. Climatic stasis was only documented for 44% of the species. In contrast, 85% of the species were in climatic stasis in their native ranges. The time to reach stasis ranged from 30 to 145 years (mean 90), and species at stasis in their invaded range occupied 97% of the climatic space they occupied in their native range. Main ConclusionsThis assessment provides valuable insight into the unrealized threat posed by the majority of invasive plants that have not yet reached stasis, as well as identifying which species can be most appropriately evaluated by methods that depend on the equilibrium assumption. Our work also demonstrates the useful perspective provided by the environmental stasis concept, which enables empirical quantification of one of the key aspects of equilibrium.

The ongoing decline in biodiversity highlights the need for understanding the causes of population changes. This study uses 25-year, large-scale monitoring dataset to investigate the influence of climate and landscape structure on the annual population growth rates of 84 bird species across Poland. Our methodological framework involves the spatiotemporal decomposition of these environmental drivers to decouple demographic effects of long-term carrying capacities from the short-term effects of environmental perturbations. Using species-specific demographic models followed by a community-wide meta-analysis, we evaluated how individual species responses scale up to shape community-level dynamics. The results reveal significant variation in species-specific responses to individual drivers. At the community level, our findings suggest that bird populations are mainly regulated by the long-term spatial constraints rather than short-term disturbances. Persistent environmental heterogeneity had the strongest positive demographic effect on birds, followed by temperature, forest dominance over croplands, and precipitation. In contrast, rapid temporal shifts in environmental heterogeneity and precipitation anomalies negatively affected population growth, whereas urbanisation consistently exerted a negative effect across both spatiotemporal dimensions. Our results highlight the significance of protecting existing heterogeneous and ecotonal habitats, as well as the need to incorporate features that enhance habitat heterogeneity into urban development. Article impact statementPreserving heterogeneous habitats is essential for the conservation of bird populations.

Incilius marmoreus inhabits an extensive range along the Pacific Coast of Mexico and a smaller allopatric region in the State of Veracruz, exhibiting an unusual distribution among herpetofauna. Gunther (1901) classified the Pacific coastal toads Bufo argillaceus and B. lateralis as conspecific with Incilius [Bufo] marmoreus, which has its type locality in Veracruz. Here, we adopt a multidisciplinary approach to reevaluate the phylogeography and taxonomy of I. marmoreus by gathering and analyzing morphological data and conducting phylogenetic and population genetic analyses from genome-wide SNP data. Our results uphold the current taxonomy by concurring with Gunther (1901). Our phylogenetic and population genetic analyses suggest that I. marmoreus from Veracruz are closely related to those from Oaxaca whilst coalescent analyses recovered a north-south split along the Pacific Coast estimated to have occurred [~]0.86 Mya followed by a shallow east-west split in the southern lineage that separates the Pacific coastal populations and the allopatric population in Veracruz [~]0.33 Mya. This species displays marked morphological and genetic diversity throughout its range, but this variation appears to be consistent with gene flow across contiguous populations rather than the existence of independent evolutionary lineages. The processes leading to the geographic isolation of the population on the coast of Veracruz remain uncertain, but we hypothesize that climatic and vegetation changes in the Late Pleistocene may have played a role.

O_LIAnimal-mediated seed dispersal is key for the maintenance and functioning of tropical ecosystems. Specifically, in the Cerrado, the largest Neotropical savanna and a global biodiversity hotspot, nearly 60% of plant species rely on animals for dispersal. C_LIO_LIClimate change threatens these interactions by affecting species distributions, reshaping communities, and potentially decoupling plants from their dispersers. Anticipating how such disruptions may alter seed dispersal networks is particularly relevant for understanding the resilience of future tropical ecosystems. C_LIO_LIHere, we combined empirical data on 139 pairwise plant-frugivore interactions with species distribution forecasts to build probabilistic interaction matrices under present and future climate scenarios, which were then used to construct 6,221 local seed dispersal networks. Using ecological niche modelling, we tested how climate change influences species range size and centroid displacement. Then, we evaluated whether such changes translate into losses of pairwise plant-frugivore co-occurrence. Finally, we investigated how these changes in occurrence overlap may affect key structural properties of future local seed dispersal networks. C_LIO_LIWe forecast that by the 2070s, under a business-as-usual climate scenario, species are likely to contract their ranges by 56 {+/-} 33% and shift their distribution centroids by 88 {+/-} 57 km within the Cerrado, leading to a 27 {+/-} 29% loss in plant-frugivore co-occurrence mainly driven by reductions in plant species distributions. At the community level, these losses will lead to smaller and more nested networks and specialized, indicating a structural simplification of seed dispersal systems in the Cerrado. C_LIO_LISynthesis: By combining empirical data on animal-mediated seed dispersal with forecasts of species distributions, we found that climate change may simplify frugivore-plant interaction networks in the Cerrado by decreasing species ranges and co-occurrence of partners. Our study demonstrates that future climate may pose a threat not only to species distributions but also to ecological interactions, such as seed dispersal, that are key to enabling climate-tracking by plants. Thus, preventing the simplification of interaction networks will be essential to conserve biodiversity in species-rich regions. C_LI

Paleobiologists commonly use genera as a proxy for species in biodiversity studies. However, a lingering concern is that patterns among genera might not always faithfully reflect patterns among species. To date, the concern has focused chiefly on measured patterns of richness over time and on implied origination and extinction rates. However, similar issues might arise for studies of morphological disparity. Moreover, there potentially are additional implications of disparity patterns among species versus those among genera concerning the range of observable anatomical characters and whether disparity within genera is comparable to disparity among genera. If clades have some relatively slowly changing characters that workers have used to denote different genera, then we would expect to see congeneric species to cluster in morphospace; however, if such characters are rare, then within-genus disparity might approach among-genus disparity. Here, we use genus-level and species-level disparity patterns among acanthoceratid ammonoids from the Late Cretaceous. In particular, we examine whether these different level imply different evolutionary dynamics over a major ecological event (Ocean Anoxic Event 2) and how disparity within genera (i.e., among congeneric species) compares to disparity among genera. We find genus-level disparity somewhat inflates early acanthoceratid disparity but implies similar patterns over the OAE2. We also find that within-genus disparity is slightly lower than among-genus, but not hugely so. The combined results suggest that acanthoceratoid shell anatomy does not really show "genus" level characters, even if congeneric species do tend to be more similar to each other than to species in other genera. Thus, this might provide more of a warning for other types of studies using anatomical data (e.g., phylogenetic studies) than for disparity studies. Non-technical SummaryMany paleobiologists use genera to examine scientific questions. This leads to questions over whether this broader approach misses important species-level patterns. This study uses acanthoceratid ammonoids from the Late Cretaceous to examine disparity patterns at both the genus-level and the species-level. We specifically examine the disparity at both levels of this group over a time of high stress for this group, Ocean Anoxic Event 2 (OAE2). Our results show that genus-level disparity slightly exaggerates early acanthoceratid disparity but lowers to a similar pattern to the species-level disparity during OAE2. Within-genus disparity is shown to be slightly lower than among-genus, but not enough to be startling. Together, these results indicate that while some species within the same genus tend to be more alike to each other than those in other genera, there isnt a set of true "genus" level characters. This outcome leads to a warning against using anatomical data in phylogenetic studies, but less so for disparity studies.

Species delimitation is a fundamental challenge in systematic biology, particularly for geographically variable taxa with hierarchical population structure and gene flow. Migration-aware coalescent models provide a powerful framework for investigating lineage divergence and accurately defining species boundaries. In this study, we combine statistical evaluations of gene flow with phylogenetic and population structure analyses to delimit species of fence lizards within the Sceloporus undulatus complex, a group characterized by extensive population subdivision, mitochondrial DNA introgression, and nuclear gene flow. We find that the undulatus complex exhibits uneven variation in genetic, morphological, and bioclimatic traits, resulting in variable distinctiveness among groups. In some cases, species boundaries are recognized by clear genetic discontinuities without gene flow. In others, shallow divergence, paraphyly, and gene flow produce leaky boundaries and fuzzy species limits. Mitochondrial introgression is extensive and concentrated at species boundaries, whereas nuclear gene flow occurs between only a few species and at much lower levels than within species. Neither within-species populations or species are substantially diverged across morphology or bioclimatic space, highlighting the limited utility of these traits for diagnosing species in this group. By integrating estimates of gene flow with phylogenetic and population structure analyses, this study provides a robust and biologically meaningful revised taxonomic framework for the undulatus complex that identifies independently evolving lineages as species.

AimHuman land-use has dramatically altered the amount, quality, and connectivity of habitat for species worldwide. Understanding how these changes affect individual species is essential for predicting the overall consequences of land-use change for biodiversity. LocationThe Caribbean island of Puerto Rico. Forest cover on the island increased from about 18 to 45% from the late 1940s to the early 2000s. MethodsUsing data on geographic distributions and functional traits for 454 tree species, we evaluated how gain of potential habitat was related to species-specific climatic associations and life-history strategies. We estimated species-specific potential habitat (climatically suitable and forested) with species distribution models and data on forest cover. We characterized each species niche breadth (the range of environmental conditions it occupies) and niche position (the environmental conditions it prefers) to compare with the conditions in reforested areas. ResultsSpecies with relatively more potential habitat in 1951 (climatically suitable and forested) also had relatively larger gains in potential habitat from 1951 to 2000. Species that tend to occupy conditions different from those common in reforested areas (i.e., more marginal habitats) gained relatively less potential habitat and species with broad environmental niches gained more potential habitat. Additionally, species with relatively acquisitive functional traits gained more suitable habitat than those with relatively conservative traits. Main conclusionsOur results show that Puerto Ricos reforestation preferentially increased habitat for species that (1) already had suitable habitat in the landscape, (2) tolerate a wide range of climatic conditions, and (3) exhibit fast, acquisitive functional strategies. These findings illustrate how land-use change in heterogeneous tropical landscapes can generate non-uniform habitat gains across species, potentially favoring generalist over specialist species and reshaping community composition.